The Astros called for a re-signing Alex Bregman their best from last season. Whether that will happen remains to be seen, but Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes that Houston has made an offer to their third longtime coach. It’s unclear if any other teams have made an official offer, but Heyman reports that Bregman’s camp has also fielded interest from the Tigers and Red Sox.
The terms of the Astros’ proposal are unknown. If Houston is going to keep Bregman, it will likely require the largest investment in franchise history. Their previous five-year organizational high was $151MM Jose Altuve extension from 2018. Bregman has a decent shot in six or seven years at more than $25MM per year. You will probably watch Photo by Matt Chapman the last six years, the extension of $ 151MM as a minimum and we can look at hitting $ 200MM.
Houston general manager Dana Brown said early in the season that the Astros may need to manage the books smartly, trading a veteran player or two for significant salary. Owner Jim Crane said earlier this week that the team was able to exceed the luxury tax limit for the second year in a row.
That would be the first requirement to re-sign Bregman. RosterResource calculates Houston’s competitive balance sheet number in the $234MM range. That’s not far below the $241MM base limit. Even if the Astros trade a veteran setup man Ryan Pressly and minus his $14MM salary, the Bregman contract would send them past the CBT mark. They also want help at first base and could try to find an affordable bullpen if they work with Pressure.
This is the first direct bond between Bregman and the Tigers. That was a long guessing game with former Astros manager AJ Hinch taking over at Motown. Detroit’s third base mix is unstable. Matt Vierling, Zach McKinstry and hope Jace Jung they all took a respectable number of at-bats instead. Vierling and McKinstry are multi-position players. Third base is a great fit for the 24-year-old Jung, who has 34 games of major league experience. If the Tigers landed Bregman, Jung could push Spencer Torkelson time to play at the beginning. He could also be a potential trade chip as Detroit looks to strengthen the backfield rotation Tarik Skubal again Reese Olson.
Funds are the biggest obstacle. While Detroit has run payrolls north of $200MM in the past, those came when the late Mike Ilitch ran the franchise. The Tigers have cut spending significantly since Christopher Ilitich’s ownership began in 2017. Much of that happened during a rebuild that was tightly sealed by Detroit’s late-season run to the AL Division Series, so they could loosen the purse strings this winter. The Tigers only have about $80MM in cap space next year, according to RosterResource, about $20MM below last season’s Opening Day mark. They have to work on the free agent market, but Bregman’s deal will likely exceed $140MM Javier Baez Contracted as a Detroit major under the ownership of Christopher Ilitch.
The Red Sox appear to have a greater chance than the Astros or Tigers to make a big free agent splash. Boston brass continues to predict a harsh winter. The starting pitcher’s strikeout is a better fit than Bregman’s run. Heyman suggests the Sox can move Rafael Devers across the diamond to first base to accommodate Bregman. That will push Places to stay in Triston Casas to the designated hitter and potential forcing Masataka Yoshida out of the list.
A simple solution would be to leave Devers at third base for another season and feed Bregman the keystone. The Sox had one of the least productive second base teams in MLB this year. Bregman hasn’t played second base because of Altuve’s presence in Houston, but agent Scott Boras said at the GM Meetings that the outfielder was willing to slide to the right side of the infield if necessary.
Bregman declined the qualifying offer, so the Tigers and Sox will lose a pick if they were to sign him. Detroit will lose its third-highest pick in next year’s draft. Boston will give up its second-highest pick and $500K in its international bonus allocation. The Sox’s fine is higher because they don’t get to share the money, while the Tigers do. Houston won’t give up anything to re-sign his free agent, though he would give up the opportunity to collect compensation after the fourth round if Bregman leaves.
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