Speculation about potential offseason trades Nolan Arenado began when president of baseball John Mozeliak announced that the club would step back and focus on player development and that they were beginning an interim process that would see Chaim Bloom take over as president of baseball operations beginning next season. Unsurprisingly, that announcement was quickly followed by reports that the Cardinals were indeed planning to weigh the market with interest in Arenado.
Derrick Goldold of St. Louis Post-Dispatch is now reporting that, to no one’s surprise, the Cardinals have spent the early stages of the offseason doing just that. He adds one important thing, writing that Arenado did not specifically ask for the sale. That’s an important wrinkle in the saga, as it was different the last time Arenado was traded. The then-Rockies third baseman was frustrated in the years following his first expansion in Colorado, as the team had not assembled a competitive roster. Given the circumstances leading up to his last trade, it was fair to wonder if Arenado might waive his no-trade clause to try to trade to a team with a more winning mentality now than the one the 2025 Cardinals will have. That does not appear to be the case at this time.
It remains possible, of course, that Arenado could leave at some point this winter. While he hasn’t asked for a trade outright, at the same time there’s no indication he’s expressed a preference to stay with the Cardinals during the reset (as teammates. Wilson Contreras again Sonny Graythey also do not have no-trade clauses, it is reported that they did). Arenado’s original motivation for pursuing a trade to the Rockies and his decision to opt out of his contract after the 2021 season stemmed from a desire to put down roots in a perennially competitive state.
If the Cards get a deal they like that would send him to a successful team now, they will likely introduce him to the situation and then have to weigh the merits of approving the deal. But, that’s a very different situation than asking Arenado to be moved and the pressure that will put on Mozeliak, Bloom and the rest of the front office to get a deal or go into the season with a veteran who clearly isn’t happy being on the roster. .
Arenado, 34 in April, has had back-to-back tough seasons at the plate. He has posted a solid but unimpressive .269/.320/.426 slash (104 wRC+) since Opening Day 2023, striking out just 15.5% of his plate appearances but also walking at a hot 6.8% clip. Despite all the accolades he’s accumulated in his career, he’s never been a consistent source of high contact (at least in terms of exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate). Still, he posted low marks in all of those categories this past season, including a paltry 3.2% barrel rate and a 31.2% hard-hit rate.
That said, Arenado remains at least a middle hitter with good bat-to-ball skills and a great glove at the hot corner. His defensive ratings aren’t as high as they were when the six-time Platinum Glove winner was widely considered the best defensive player in Major League Baseball, at any position. However, he still posted good marks in Defensive Runs Saved (6) and Outs Above Average (9). Arenado’s nine errors this year tied his career low in a 162-game season. He’s as reliable as they come, and while his arm strength (according to Statcast) has continued to dip in recent seasons, his range remains top-notch.
As recently as 2022, Arenado was an MVP finalist who posted a .293/.358/.533 batting line with 30 homers and elite glovework. Even if he doesn’t return to those situations, he’s an above-average player on a contract that doesn’t pay him like a professional anyway. Arenado is owed $74MM over the next three seasons, but the Rockies are at risk for $10MM of that amount ($5MM in both 2025 and 2026).
It’s a front-loaded deal — owed $32MM, $27MM and $15MM over the next three seasons — so perhaps the big 2025 salary ($27MM after Rockies contributions) could be a deal breaker for some interested parties. On the other hand, a high-paying club that is accustomed to paying the luxury tax may not make much of a dent in Arenado’s annual effective value of $21.33MM, for tax purposes. His remaining guarantee and the associated AAV are usually in line with what good but non-star free agents like Christian Walker again Teoscar Hernandez they are expected to command.
Goold notes that the Cardinals feel no financial pressure at this time to cancel the deal. They have already reduced the fee a bit and could do with more short-term player trades. Therefore, they won’t be forced to simply move Arenado to a team that is willing to take on a contract but offers little opportunity.
At the same time, if the Cardinals’ lack of financial pressure means they can afford to pay some of that remaining salary, they can actually buy a better return. Covering even one-third of the contract would give Arenado a price tag of three years and $45MM. Jeimer Candelario protected in free agency last winter. Many clubs may be interested in that situation. Ultimately it’s Arenado’s call, thanks to that no-trade protection, but so far he’s not forcing the team’s hand.
Source link
